Bitcoin Poised for a Major Move as Key Indicator Signals Volatility Surge

Bitcoin Poised for a Major Move as Key Indicator Signals Volatility Surge

Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has been consolidating for weeks, fluctuating within a stable range of $93,000 to $98,000. As tr

Bitcoin’s Volatility Nears Historic Lows

Despite an attempt to break past its all-time high (ATH) of $109,114, recorded on January 20, 2025, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain upward momentum. Following a second unsuccessful attempt to surpass $105,000 in late January, the market has entered a phase of contraction, with price movement slowing considerably across key assets.

Recent data from Glassnode highlights that Bitcoin’s one-week realized volatility has dropped to 23.42%, approaching historical lows. In the past four years, volatility has fallen below this level only a handful of times, such as in October 2024 (22.88%) and November 2023 (21.35%). Each of these instances preceded major market movements, suggesting that a significant price shift could be imminent.

Bitcoin’s Options Implied Volatility Also at Multi-Year Low

Further supporting this outlook, Bitcoin’s one-week options implied volatility (IV) has declined to 37.39%, reaching its lowest level in years. Historical data shows that similar IV compressions in early 2023 and 2024 were followed by strong volatility spikes. Meanwhile, long-term IV remains elevated, with the three-month IV at 53.1% and the six-month IV at 56.25%, indicating expectations of a future breakout.

Potential Scenarios:

Breakout or Correction?

According to Glassnode analysts, Bitcoin is at a decisive moment, where price action could break out of its current consolidation phase. If demand remains robust, Bitcoin could establish a new trading range above its ATH of $109,114, potentially setting the stage for price discovery beyond the $110,000 mark.

However, if sustained buying pressure fails to materialize, Bitcoin could experience a correction similar to previous post-ATH phases. This would likely be driven by fear among recent buyers who may see their holdings transition from profit to unrealized losses, leading to a sell-off.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has gained 1.49% in the last 24 hours, trading at $98,915 after reaching an intraday high of $98,980. The cryptocurrency faces a critical resistance level at $99,067, which aligns with the daily 50-day simple moving average (SMA). A breakout above this level could propel Bitcoin beyond the $100,000 psychological barrier.

On the downside, strong buying interest has emerged just below the current price level. According to on-chain data from IntoTheBlock, approximately 2.76 million addresses acquired 2.1 million BTC at an average price of $97,100. This significant accumulation suggests that if Bitcoin faces further downward pressure, this zone could act as a robust support level, preventing a deeper decline.

Conclusion:

A Major Move on the Horizon

With Bitcoin’s volatility at historic lows and key technical indicators pointing toward a breakout, traders should brace for increased market activity in the coming weeks. Whether Bitcoin reclaims its ATH and enters a new price discovery phase or experiences a correction due to distribution pressure remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear—Bitcoin is gearing up for its next major move, and the market is watching closely.